Survey: Feedback wanted on accelerated strategy options!
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Poll is closed!
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Thanks for participating! Results will be posted in a new thread in this forum next week.
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How can TSI make seasteading a reality even sooner?
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Here at TSI, we've been thinking a lot about how to improve our strategy. We recently published a strategy document and a vision timeline, but these are only the beginning, covering things at a very high level.
We also want results sooner. Our current timeline & strategy describe modest achievements -- a prototype seastead built, a successful ocean-based business operating -- by the end of 2010. We've been thinking in recent weeks that we can, and want to, do better. And we've heard from you, our community, that you'd love to see tangible results faster too.
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Three Paths (Or More)?
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We'd like to solicit your feedback on some options we've been looking at. We've primarily been considering three paths, though we are also open to other suggestions:
Large ocean ventures: Funding and operating a large seasteading-style destination on the ocean to further explore the economic, social, and political aspects of seasteading.
Single-family seastead construction: Designing and building residential seasteads the size of a small apartment.
Technology R&D: Investigating the practicality of more speculative technologies to make seasteading easier.
Variations on these paths are outlined below. We may pursue several at once; most of these ideas are not mutually exclusive. We'd like your feedback about what most warrants TSI's focus.
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Options Under Consideration
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Large Ocean Ventures
Large Ocean Ventures, Issue 1: Infrastructure Options
ClubStead. There is no more compelling and exciting way to get the seasteading movement off the ground than by getting funding to build a large seastead complex like ClubStead. Something like this would inspire people to explore and support the seasteading movement like nothing else will. We've got a professionally-engineered design for a large-scale seastead -- let's use it.
Ship. We can make amazing progress in the seasteading movement without actually needing to build a seastead. On a used ship, we could host any of the offerings considered above. We could enjoy the freedom of an ocean-based lifestyle, and start to learn its implications -- economic self-sufficiency, legal complexities, and operational challenges. This is enough of an incremental step without throwing a brand new technology platform into the mix. Used vessel prices are at all-time lows, and ships are a standard asset that can be purchased with a loan.
Don't pursue a large ocean venture at this time.
Large Ocean Ventures, Issue 2: Business Offering Options
Government Innovation Center. The planet's final frontier is the perfect place to explore topics of competitive government and other questions of government innovation. This center would be a one-of-a-kind think tank, holding regular conferences and seminars to bring smart, passionate people together to learn about and develop these fields of thought. There's a great synergy between seasteading and the idea of a government innovation center -- seasteading provides the setting and the inspiration to help the center succeed, and the center can build tremendous support among influential individuals with the resources to massively help the seasteading movement.
Condos / timeshares. There are already high-end luxury residential cruise ships operating, so we know ocean living can be done. If TSI can make this feasible at a lower price point, this is a way for interested individuals to start living a freer lifestyle as quickly as possible. This business model makes funding straightforward, because the money would come from residents, and one can get loans to buy ships (unlike building weird structures).
Casino resort. There's no shortage of demand and popular support for casinos, and they're a strong business model. A casino resort is a promising way to make an economically self-sufficient ocean destination, by itself or in combination with other offerings. We started developing a business plan for this approach last year with a "Burning Man in comfort" theme of art and peak experiences.
Medical services. Medical tourism is a rapidly growing $2 billion/yr industry in the US, growing largely due to the inefficient and (for many) non-affordable domestic medical care. Mercy Ships and US Navy hospital ships have shown for decades that medical procedures can be done on a ship as easily as on land. If people already fly to India for a treatment, why not get it on a cruise ship out of San Diego or Florida?
Renewable energy. Under the Obama administration, the US is turning its attention to renewable energy, which is already a major focus in Europe. Billions of dollars of funding are being poured into this area. The US DoE lists Ocean Energy as one of the major areas of renewable energy. Because renewable power generation from wind and waves can be loud and unsightly, locating it on or near the cost is often not an option. Europe already has more than a dozen offshore wind farms totalling 1,080 MW of power, and the European Wind Energy Association anticipates this will go up ten-fold by 2015 (page 17 here).
Aquaculture. Demand for fish is growing as people realize the health benefits of fish and as the world gets wealthier and better able to afford them. Yet at the same time, supply in the wild is decreasing due to overfishing. Fish & seafood aquaculture is a $1 billion industry in the US, with over 4,000 farms in operation. Right now, most aquaculture happens in coastal and freshwater areas, but those areas are heavily contested and environmentally sensitive. Offshore aquaculture is the only option which can scale to meet the 21st century's seafood needs.
Software development house. A group of software developers could be competitive with neighboring land-based markets if they were comparatively skilled and could maintain a lower cost of living. This might be done by seeding a company with members of the current seasteading community, which seems to have a disproportionate number of professional software developers due to its roots as an online movement. Another option might be to bring in developers from a country like India, giving companies all the usual benefits of outsourced Indian development plus the possibility to more cheaply work face-to-face due to geographic proximity.
General commercial real estate. Building a commercial sector is a critical step in making the seasteading movement economically self-sustainable. Businesses experimenting with new ocean-based business models will have enough to worry about without needing to buy a ship or platform and learn how to operate it. So rather than focusing on a specific business model, we could try to create general-use commercial space to rent to other businesses. If we can provide quality real estate, we'll be providing a critical service to the unfolding commercial sector. This is definitely the route to go eventually; the open question is whether to start this way.
Single-family Seastead Construction
Single-family Seastead Construction, Issue 1: Development Cycle Options
Meticulous design. The thought here is that seasteads are going to be extremely complex pieces of engineering, with little margin of error to stay safe on the open ocean. The best way to come up with a quality design is simply for professional engineers to take the time to do a long design cycle and detailed computer simulation.
Rapid prototyping. The philosophy here is to quickly create momentum by building a first prototype in 2009. Then learn as much as possible by doing, churning out new prototypes 2 or more times per year. A floating slab of 100 ft^2 concrete in the San Francisco Bay with two lawn chairs and a beer cooler on top might be a first rev; at least it may not be much, but at least we'd assemble a team, workshop, and construction process, and begin experimenting with possible materials. Meticulous design can come later.
Don't pursue single-family seastead construction at this time.
Single-family Seastead Construction, Issue 2: Centralized vs. Distributed
TSI-driven projects. The seasteading movement needs to develop seastead technology by having a dedicated group build in-depth expertise in seastead design and construction. TSI is the group in the best position to do this, given their recognition and ability to procure additional funding.
Community-driven projects. The seasteading movement needs a diversity of creative talent to most efficiently develop seasteading technology. Depending on one centralized group is unnecessarily putting all of our eggs in one basket. TSI should try to foster community-driven design and construction through contests, grant programs, and so on.
Technology R&D Options
Artificial breakwaters. Cost is a primary factor in the feasibilty of seasteading. Ships and ClubStead are both relatively expensive, especially considering maintenance costs. A successful breakwater design which protects a large area from the waves could reduce the cost by orders of magnitude, as discussed in this DRP. If breakwaters are the long-term future (as Patri believes), perhaps we should start working on them ASAP. And if they aren't the long-term future (which research could tell us), it would be good to know so we can adjust our strategies accordingly.
VersaBuoy. A number of people on the forums believe that VersaBuoy's articulated spar technology may be superior to the fixed spars of ClubStead. We could investigate duplicating or licensing their technology.
Pnuematically Stabilized Platform. Investigate this wave attenuation platform technology by Float, Inc.
Don't pursue improved technology at this time. Use current technology instead.
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Respond to our survey!
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We've got a survey posted to collect community feedback on which of these options are most promising. Please take a moment to give us your feedback!
I took this survey, since it is a good ideea of getting feedback on how to make seasteading a reality, sooner. While reading your "strategy document" I came across this statement, I quote " It's also important to understand that TSI will not operate any actual seasteading communities on the ocean. Central to our vision is the idea of experimentation and competition among new governments and social systems; the power of this vision will be realized only when seasteaders are left to self-organize. Some of the first communities are likely to consist of employees living on a seastead being used to operate a business. Residential communities will create their own means of self-organization (in effect, fledgling governments). Our role is to support these communities however we can, as long as they operate with the consensual participation of their members and are not having an overtly negative impact on the seasteading movement as a whole. "
I do understand your point here, that TSI wants to be more like the "medium" thru which the seasteading "vibes" propagate towards the ultimate destination,...but do you really think they are separated? Can we really talk about seasteading if we dont get involved in all the aspects, including owning, building, operating? After all, at any point, the "medium" is the "vibe" and viceversa. Dont get me wrong, I agree that TSI dosent have the means for getting involved in the complicated financial and technical aspects of building a seastead. But a company formed for that purpose alone, will. For example, years ago, when Reality Sculptors was on, I put together Standard Marine a company designed to build and operate future seasteads. I end up doing something else in life for awhile,...But now, here we are. Surf's up.The stakes are different, higher. Seasteading its around the corner. I truly belive that. So, at this point, wouldnt a venture between TSI and a company who can built be the next logical step? The subject here is A REALITY, SOONER. Wouldnt that small step of really building a prototype seastead be actually the big leap for seasteading at a global level, given the success and the media attention that TSI enjoyed so far? Wouldnt that maybe exponentially shorten the seasteading time frame or even catapult this concept into a different reality, given the actual global economic conditions, and the new politics of change sweeping the American landscape? I personally think it will. But I was always the perennial optimist. So was Murphy. Regards, O.
Hey O -- yeah, great points. This actually mirrors our recent thinking exactly, and is reflected in our strategy survey... the whole "large ocean ventures" path involves actually operating a seastead (or at least seastead-like, in the case of a ship) community, possibly as some sort of joint venture.
Re: your quote from the strategy document -- a common perception when people first hear about us is that TSI is almost a political entity, that we're going to go found a new city-state any day now and start recruiting citizens. We wanted to dispel that notion. But lately we've been focusing on the fact that starting some sort of operation could be a great catalyst for the movement.
I've updated the strategy doc (and will soon update our FAQ) to reflect this updated thinking -- thanks for flagging it.
James -
I really like the Medical services boat idea. I can "see" that happening in the near future. I would even be excited to work with that kind of project in some IT related capacity.
Speaking of IT, maybe there should be some brainstorming about IT-related ideas, since it seems like half the people on this forum are programmers. I dimly remember hearing about an "outsourcing boat", full of Indians, that allowed Silicon Valley companies to hire low-cost offshore programmers, but still meet with them frequently (since they were nearby). Maybe something like that? A big problem with ideas like aquaculture and renewable energy is that (I'm guessing) we don't have too much in the way of human resources for those projects. But I bet that you could put together a kick-ass software outfit, just from the people on this forum.
I can definitely see a progression here. You start out with a boat full of doctors and a boat full of programmers, and build up from there - more ships, platforms, services, all moving along in an incremental fashion until eventually there's a city on the water.
Hey Dan,
Thanks -- sounds worth considering. I've added it to the options in the thread and in the survey. We've got 10 responses already, so when we analyze the results, we'll keep in mind that 10 people didn't have the option to vote for this one.
Dan - you are talking about Sea Code, which is a classic example of a project in this space. They made a website, got some press, and then never did anything.
As I see it, there are 2-3 major issues to be addressed to make seasteading a reality:
1a) Economics; we'll have to import quite a few goods from the terrestrials, so we have to provide services or products in return.
1b) Another related point is to minimize our dependence on land based resources by growing/harvesting our own food, generating our own energy, water etc.
2) A structure which satisfies the contradictory parameters of cost, stability, mobility etc.
Ideally these issues need to be addressed in parallel, tackling them in series will lengthen time requirements and increase the likelihood of failure.
I therefore propose that TSI buy/rent a cheap floating structure like a ship or a barge close to shore and hire a few engineering grads/experienced workers to live on it. These guys are paid a nominal sum, say 500$ per month, along with being provided food, energy etc. The cost of their food, energy, transportation needs is clearly accounted for. TSI then signs a contract with these proto-seasteaders to the effect that if they are able to start an onboard business, or devise means of growing/catching their own food, or generating their own energy, the money saved by these efforts will be paid to the proto-seasteaders. TSI and TSI forum visitors can pitch in with ideas, advice or a bit of startup capital.
This arrangement should be invaluable in addressing points 1a and 1b mentioned above. The proto-seasteaders have every incentive to be super-innovative in generating business ideas or food/energy generation, and the broader community can help out with ideas and advice.
This kind of set-up runs in parallel with attempts to design and build a family-size seastead, such that, once the family size stead is ready, the businesses and food/energy technologies and the accumulated experience of the proto-seasteaders can be immediately transposed onto the final structure and we can set sail right away instead of waiting for these isuues to be tackled separately.
Comments/feedback??
I can see generating water and energy very easily. In terms of growing,...corn, wheat, potatoes, tomatoes, lettuce, onions, olives, parsley, apples, pears, oranges, ...and chicken, cows, pork, lamb,...etc,..I dont think it feasible. We might need up to 3-4 acres /person to be totally self sufficient, which is highly unrealistic price wise. Would you want to be one of the guys making,...say, $500/month?
I don't think an "india on the sea" kind of model is likely to ever be competitive with the real thing.
The ocean tax is too great still and the bandwidth/latency requirements would not be acceptable enough at first. Also, the cost and difficulty of travel would be prohibitive unless the ship/clubtead remained in coastal waters.. which would subject it to US jurisdiction or at least put it in a grey area that would quickly be addressed by concerned US citizens and politicians.
I think the coders paradise model is still worthy of investigation however. In many cases, software and web developers can work freelance or in small groups with few infrastructure needs. Self hosting (for web sites and applications) is less and less relevant, ultra low latency is not a must in many cases and even if internet traffic cannot be made cheap, reliable and speedy (with present technology), voice communications still can. Software developers, freelance, in small dev shops or otherwise, can absolutely make a living on a seastead with no need for new and unproven technologies or high capital expenditures.
I think coders are a primary target segment for people interested in living an independent life with tradeoffs. It is also an industry with little barriers to entry and high mobility, with a lot of small or one man operations that can make the move.. bringing with them an already established business without the risks associated with dramatic business model changes. I for one would be interested in moving my business to a clubstead like structure could the maintenance costs be lowered somewhat.
As I see it, there are 2-3 major issues to be addressed to make seasteading a reality:
1a) Economics; we'll have to import quite a few goods from the terrestrials, so we have to provide services or products in return.
1b) Another related point is to minimize our dependence on land based resources by growing/harvesting our own food, generating our own energy, water etc.
2) A structure which satisfies the contradictory parameters of cost, stability, mobility etc.
Ideally these issues need to be addressed in parallel, tackling them in series will lengthen time requirements and increase the likelihood of failure.
I therefore propose that TSI buy/rent a cheap floating structure like a ship or a barge close to shore and hire a few engineering grads/experienced workers to live on it. These guys are paid a nominal sum, say 500$ per month, along with being provided food, energy etc. The cost of their food, energy, transportation needs is clearly accounted for. TSI then signs a contract with these proto-seasteaders to the effect that if they are able to start an onboard business, or devise means of growing/catching their own food, or generating their own energy, the money saved by these efforts will be paid to the proto-seasteaders. TSI and TSI forum visitors can pitch in with ideas, advice or a bit of startup capital.
This arrangement should be invaluable in addressing points 1a and 1b mentioned above. The proto-seasteaders have every incentive to be super-innovative in generating business ideas or food/energy generation, and the broader community can help out with ideas and advice.
This kind of set-up runs in parallel with attempts to design and build a family-size seastead, such that, once the family size stead is ready, the businesses and food/energy technologies and the accumulated experience of the proto-seasteaders can be immediately transposed onto the final structure and we can set sail right away instead of waiting for these isuues to be tackled separately.
Hmm... re: (1b), you are essentially proposing a subsidized research program around ways to improve the economic viability and political autonomy of seasteading by advancing technology which helps seasteads be self-sufficient.
I think that is valuable, but best fits into our strategy at a later stage. I see things like economic self-sustainability (your #1a) and proving the technology (your #2) as coming first, which are the areas directly targeted by our current proposals. Increasing self-sufficiency strikes me as an optimization to the economic equation, but probably not a make-or-break one, as cruise ships survive just fine at their current level of self-sufficiency.
Great survey questions. Thank you so much for valuing the input from the community.
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There is no fate but what we make for ourselves. Each to his fate.