October 11, 2009 at 1:53 pm #1085
The more money we have the easier it will be to fund seasteads. So investing wisely is important. I think the following should be interesting to Libertarian types:
I mostly wrote it. Please share with anyone else you think might be interested.
— VinceOctober 21, 2009 at 4:34 pm #8400
Great article. The reference to real bills is interesting. Reals bills are important to augment a gold backed currency to allow expansion and contraction of the money supply to match economic activity. With current computer technology, real bills can be issued as digital bearer intruments which can be transferred and split, and even automatically redeemed against their issuers’ accounts. eCache is a good example of a gold backed digital bearer certificate which can be transferred, split, and reissued.October 21, 2009 at 9:03 pm #8403
Nice summary. I think you over-simplified the causes of the Great Depression, though. But bonus points for mentioning the fact that oil producing countries are dropping the dollar. It cannot be stressed enough how big a deal that is.
Most major nations can’t allow that to happen yet, since they hold so much U.S. debt. If the dollar collapsed they would be out trillions. So watch as, over the next 5-10 years, the developed world starts to slowly divest themselves of the dollar. Nothing too quickly so as not to panic the global economy, but a slow dump until they feel safe and then….BAM.October 22, 2009 at 1:53 am #8405
Most major nations can’t allow that to happen yet, since they hold so much U.S. debt. If the dollar collapsed they would be out trillions.
While it is sort of true that if nobody sold then everybody could pretend they had lots of dollars that were worth lots of money, it does not work that way. If one country tried to prop up the dollar they would be throwing good money after bad and hurt themselves more. If things were not so bad you could imagine that G20 could agree to some coordinated effort to prop up the dollar. But the reality is that each country, or even each bank, or each investor, acts for their own best interest. And on a case by case basis it is best to be the first one to sell. But the earlier you sell the better. In this situation things usually crash.
If it keeps going down at 2% per month there is no way this will go on for 5 years.
You have to take life as it happens, but you should try to make it
happen the way you want to take it.
– German ProverbOctober 30, 2009 at 5:38 pm #8500
I would expect that at some point a relatively small holder of dollar reserves will dump them on the market. China has too much to do this and would devalue the rest of its holdings once it sold a portion, but a small nation or central bank could safely be the first to cash out at prevailing prices. This could then cascade up through larger and larger holders running on the dollar, dumping them on the market in larger and larger quantities with a corresponding accelerating plummet in the dollar exchange rate. Since all of the other national currencies are also fiat, I would expect this flight to be into precious metals, real estate, mineral rights, and commodities, causing all of the currencies to crash as well.November 2, 2009 at 4:56 pm #8511
One of the issues here is that the world’s “big pile of money” has nearly tripled in the past decade, and there are few, safer alternatives to the US Dollar, and the US Treasury Debt… and definitely so in the quantities (approaching US$80 trillion) that are required to invest it all. With stock markets and commodities in flux and the housing market still falling, let alone recovering, we are going to see the US Dollar, and the debt that goes with it, in relative demand for quite some years to come. Now… it may take the place of the pound sterling as the second choice in word currencies… the yuan or the IMF notes taking primary, but that will take decades to develop fully. I’m thinking the US’s route to failure will be more like the last English speaking empire to “fall”… and Britain still holds on to a good deal of influence in the world.
Not what we all want to hear, but I think something more likely.
There is no fate but what we make for ourselves. Each to his fate.
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