Big things have small beginnings – transition capability key feature
March 24, 2014 at 10:05 am #23208
Damnit, Ellmer, it IS sad the people will have no clean running water, proper sewage, and other benefits of the modern world. It’s also sad you think you need to educate me on the basics of anything. I will never have a $million for seasteading, by myself or from an investor. But if i really believed i could never get away from here, i’d put a gun to my head right now. I personally do not need a investor to live adequately. The manner i am forced into using, in the existing circumstances, is not optimal, but no one in poverty is going to set up a massive cement slipform molding operation for a square kilometer of seastead on a boat tomorrow. That huge expensive scenario is not in my world view, and i am not in any investor’s world view. This is not because we are stupid and need you to explain anything to me. I think it is stupid to build a house with firewood and fuel oil (lumber and tar-based shingles), but almost everyone still does it, and building a boat with steel may not last any longer than a car made of common steel (20 years), but i cannot afford a Delorean (stainless steel), and a car is the wrong place to use concrete, and no one is investing in either, because investing is more about numbers and not real social value. And by the way, scrapping a steel ship at 20 years isn’t about bottom paint and rust, which you keep harping on, it’s about metal fatigue.March 24, 2014 at 10:58 am #23211
It does not really matter what size you start as i said you can well start at the size of a canoe, the ramform seastead it all about that “start small and scale it up approach”.
What matters is the DYNAMICS of the project. Its capabiltiy to make a TRANSITION to a floating city. If having a floating earthship and being visited as curiosity and make some bugs from that is your objective a bottle island will suit you well – but be aware that that does no go further than just where it is. Having a floating houseboat like the Tanka, nice. But if you really want to kick off seasteading you can not put your head into the sand about the fact that you will need investors believing in that project.March 24, 2014 at 11:49 am #23213
Ellmer, i do not “want to kick off seasteading” in your vision. I do not want to live in a cramped floating apartment building owned by someone else. I want to “want to kick off seasteading” as in ME being 10 miles from humans. I want to not hear gunfire, not breathe the cancer-causing stench of trash fires, not hear the blather of morons, not hear the useless barking of dogs and drunk rednecks. If that is not enough of a business model for an investor, ok with me. If the an angel setting up an acreage for incubating seasteads, the same way someone might set up an acre for random musicians to form an orchestra, isn’t a good enough societal benefit model, fine. I have already built boats with no help, i built this house with no help, and in both cases someone lost out on the benefits of cooperation. Ditto my computer programming and engine overhauling skills. But that’s how humans traditionally operate, and there is absolutely nothing i can do to change that. If an investor builds one of your dream cities on the water, i would have the same problems there as i do here, so it’s not good for me. And you shooting down everything i say is just another justification for me to have taken down my websites, and not clue you in on anything else i have done and can do, because i can avoid getting stomped on by being non-cooperative too.March 25, 2014 at 7:46 am #23222
Navegante Cholon, nice floating low budget family accomodation in a tropical lagoon. Cartagena Colombia
Well basicly this would mean that you do include neither investors, nor community aspects, into the concept because you are not interested in “transition to a powerful sea city” at all, what you really want is “low budget yachting and living aboard solutions” type Richi Sowa, Floating Neutrinos, Tanka, Moken, Uru, Kelongs, and similar, that for certain have a millenium long tradition of living economicly on the water, but also of non transition into cities for good reasons…i would suggest to open a “economic family float out” thread to explore this aspect. To talk about transition into a city (as we do in this thread) obviously involves to talk about investors and more than one man contributing money to it and believe in it. In any case you always can start with something canoe size and grow it to “family float size” (like the Floating Neutrinos) and leave it there. If you build it from veggy material you need to rebuild it once a year. If you build it as fiber concrete shell it will last 200 years. If that is your objective just do it. But i understand that TSI will not feature that as a important step for a floating future for mankind. It is – and will always be – just a family raft…having a family raft is a nice starting point – but what matters for a seasteading vision is the DYNAMICS that comes up after the first couple of floating squaremeters.March 25, 2014 at 7:57 am #23223
Ellmer, are you saying that there is no number of individual “family rafts”, which anchor to the same seamount (or around the same island, or in the same atoll, or etc), and have a cooperative framework, share common concerns, is not seasteading? And are you saying that such a group, which could grow into an important offshore farm of fish, seaweeds, clams, etc, is beneath all investors and should not be discussed on this forum?March 25, 2014 at 9:00 am #23224
I think we need to look at history and dynamics and “cooincidence of factors” to understand when the “development into a powerful city” occurs and when not. I see from history that there is a clear chance that a raft up stays a raft up on the margins of what the landlord and its interference allows for thousand years and more (see TANKA see MOKEN see asian floating markets, see asian floating city extensions) this is especially the case as long as the floating community is based on “poor people marginized from land”.
The historical example of VENICE on the other hand is interesting because it developed economic power based on a special seabased economy and international traderoutes. Its beginning was in the turmoil of the breakdown of the roman empire and invasion of the Hunns. Rich merchants started to flee into the swamps to protect their assets from the land based hunns. This is very parallel to what we see in offshoring and yacht Headquarter tendencies today. Taxing, redtaping, interference takes the role of the Hunns.
Next thing happens the rich merchants started not to live in swamphuts like the resident fishermen but drive piling foundations into the ground and build magnificent buildings on them – so they put VENICE on the map. – something very similar as Dubai is doing today – using architecture to transcend from “camel trade outpost” to world city center.
Then Venice plugged into “worldtrade” by means of a powerful merchant fleet – the rest is history.
I think all those factors must happen conveniently to produce the TRANSITION if they do not happen – we stay Tanka, Moken, Uru, Kelong, – style – for ever, without transition of any kind. So investors (like in the birthdays of Venice) and their benfits in adopting a waterbased lifestyle are the key element. Unfortunatly poor people only have the capacity to create “floating slums dominated by landlords” – not powerful independent sea cities. So history tells us that floating out poor people on rafts tanscend to nothing while floating out merchant benefits can change the world.
The other thing i see with transition capacity is the “opportunity principle of frontier development” give a poor man a chance to create a better living on a new frontier and he will go. Oceanic aquaculture, mid ocean ridge mining, offer this. But opening the new frontier is still a task for investors. There would not have been a chance for the farmer without the railroad. For the settler without a sail ship. So like it or not – investors are the key element of any development and transition.March 25, 2014 at 10:14 am #23225
Tanka floating village no transition to a “powerful sea city” for 1200 years. Small scale fishing and aquaculture economics, baystead concept. Cartago, Venice, Minoic empire, Spanish Empire, English Empire, successful examples where SEABASED transcended.
What TSI intends is “repeating the good stuff” and trying not to repeate the “bad stuff” related to SEABASED – the first step is “learning from history” – Investment and economic power is always the key element in transition. Floating out a family on small scale economic base has been there already millions of times – there is no need to repeate the experiment. What TSI wants to repeate is the transition of VENICE to a magnificent seapower this time on permanent floating foundations and having the black death (who stopped Venice’s ascend) under control what is a technological edge we have now. Venice is still a baystead its seapower is based on ships, today we have the technological means to go for the open water (means 99% of the planets habitable volume) not only for the swamps near to land. – This is worth doing it and should give that investor eyebrow rise that is on the beginning of big transitions.
Islote Cartagena Colombia – fishermen outpost. How do you make the transition from fishermen outpost to powerfull sea city.
Cartagena skysrapper line seen from the sea.March 25, 2014 at 11:28 am #23226
A big amount of floating family houses and improvised floating units do not necessaryly lead to a powerfull sea city it can also end up as a “floating slum” that will be removed by the city to make space for desireable developments. You better introduce the concept of “great style floating architecture” EARLY into a baystead concept.
And you better base the economy on something better than small scale fishing. Having a clean futuristic city look is important – a “slum look” will not attract big business to that place. Therfore it is not important that it “floats somehow” it is far more important that it can be “a great place to do important business”.March 25, 2014 at 11:29 am #23227
I cannot help but think this must grow the same way that Venice did: it needs the same basics of human habitation (drinking water, sewerage, food, and energy supply) that Venice started with, on-site (not all of it imported), plus it must float in a storm and not make people sick. I suspect the only reason TSI and BlueSeed are looking at cruise ships is because that’s the only half-way working model so far, and still neither one has actually done anything. The cruise ship model, as it’s done, is “run from storms, burn tons of fuel per hour, import all foods, dump sewage overboard at night while cruising, export nothing”, so it’s a poor example of a seastead. It’s a fine example of a boat being a hole in the water that you keep pouring money into. Sure the cruise industry makes money, but only by a never-ending supply of saps paying boatloads of money to be on it.
I say a city like Venice started because it became self-sufficient first, and then it reached out in ways to make money off it’s situation. I do not believe a group of rich folks decided to move into the swamp instead of going to other lands, they first had to see the poor fishers were living just fine there. Well, we still do not have that model of startup to show a startup Venice, except the Tanka and others. But they are baystead, and that offers nothing to rich people trying to get away from interference, it offers nothing to me either, unless there was an incubator there for testing ideas, and floating them out to live on, and test, and see what the real-world cost of things is. Seriously, can you tell me what the best design is for a cylinder cement pontoon and how to attach it to a deck? Someone needs to find out this information so people can decide to use them or not!
Really, the Tanka provide most of their own food, what of the raftsteads or yachts you look down on do that? The Tanka do not burn gallons of gasoline or diesel every day, and they don’t haul their houses out for scrubbing and bottom paint every year. And being baysteads, none has survived a major storm at sea. Even Ocean says every vessel must run for shelter for a hurricane, and for all but maybe 100 surface vessels in all the world, i agree with him 100 percent.
I say that until the rich see the poor farmer can live on the frontier and be comfortable, there will be no investors. And generally what happens when the rich move to someplace, the poor cannot afford to be there anymore. And then the rich make rules to be darned sure they don’t see those poor people from their mansion balconies. What we need is an incubator where someone says “i know all the stuff that has not worked, i want to fund what’s not been done, at least on a trial scale”. Chances are they will learn something useful about seasteading, and by the contracts they sign they get some rights to the designs, and then they will have something to invest in. And i am talking a couple of years to prove someones can live out on the water before an investor risks building a second one.
Only then will you get beyond the Tanka model of widely spread out and low return private businesses on the ocean.
And at the same time, few people with money will drop $millions on a place to live and not have their own private deck space, and lots of it. They don’t want to be locked into a space where Justin Bieber will blast music and race a speedboat in circles and be the disagreeable teenager that he is. This alone pretty much voids the floating apartment building concepts. The investors will be on their own raftsteads about a mile from each other, once someone finds a raftstead that will not go to the bottom.March 25, 2014 at 12:21 pm #23228
The feel and style that will attract the right kind of activity would be something like this.March 25, 2014 at 12:38 pm #23229
The Dubai palms are islands, and each residence has lawns around it. The other picture cannot possibly be out in the ocean, i know bays it would not survive in, heck a passing boat can leave a wake that ruins that carpet.
Someone a decade ago did a little pricing and found using conventional technology a mansion on a barge could be built for the same money per acre as ocean front property sells for in an area like Miami. But then ocean front property won’t sink, has no problems getting electricity, natural gas, and mail delivery. And you can bet if someone does park a floating acre with a mansion on it to block the land view of the ocean, there’s going to be lawsuits. Ergo, the floating mansion cannot be in sight of existing mansions, you better prove it cannot sink (or incur any more other damages) under any conditions, and the owners cannot give up anything to live in it vs living in a mansion on land. So there’s no floating mansion in Miami, despite the huge shallow bay there, and the Florida Keys right around the corner, and the Cay Sal islands to the south just 60miles offshore.
So far, all you have done is show pretty computer images and islands. You cannot convince me to invest imaginary money, what is your sales pitch to make anyone invest real money?March 25, 2014 at 12:52 pm #23231
Yes that are “the small things you need figure out and solve” to keep the forward momentum of a floating development and any real estate development in general. All depends on the interference scale and the area you are in, how you broker political power around you – baseline is what is in the image above is feasible today – it was not feasible when VENICE was built so we can not only do as good but even better than Venice did. The price per squaremeter is roughly between 166 and 480 USD (depending on design and setup) what is inside the same range that land based real estate development operates and it has a service lifespan of hundreds of years – what is as good as land based real estate – if it is built in concrete honeycomb and shell technology.March 25, 2014 at 1:07 pm #23232
It is not necessary to convince you. I am good if i can convince a handfull of early bird investors to do a serious pilot project and pump a bit of money into it. It is in the nature of development that you start with less than 1% of a random public convinced as your project makes progress more and more people become convinced, but there will always be a “unconvinced rest” that should not bother you as a developer…The point here is to recieve your argumentation and respond it as good as possible it is not a war where you have a winner and a looser – it is a “intelectual exercise” were hopefully everybody taking part in it is learning something.June 9, 2014 at 8:43 am #23648
. . . .
Seasteader looking over the development space from the Island of Tierrabomba to the Skyline of Bocagrande. Hurricane free waterspcace miles and miles of lagoon.
Seasteading Cartagena Colombia project open to early bird investors…many different proposals Cartagena Marine Business Cluster. Yacht, Tourism, Marine Servies, Port Infrastructure, Floating Housing.
Contact http://yook3.com Colombia is the C in CIVETS nations, fast growing, emerging economies, with potential to explosive growth, in the next years, called, Latin Americas Emerging Tiger Nation, Colombia is a “must look at” spot on the global investors “next to do list” …
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Ocean sphere fish farming:June 13, 2014 at 8:21 am #23657
National Geographics joining the floating business development interest club…
http://concretesubmarine.activeboard.com/t57829015/floating-cities-of-the-future/ … #ocean #OceanColonization #floating
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