The Seasteading Institute

Reply To: Timeline Comments

It's good to see that a policy of rapprochement is being advocated vis a vis world governments. I can see three main choke points:

1) Between 10 and 15 years - I predict we will lose a number of battles prior to the favorable court ruling anticipated by year 15. We may be able to minimize the actual number of tries needed to get this favorable ruling by focusing on something which will encourage the Powers That Be (PTB) to provide that ruling. Brain cycles should be spent in this regard prior to years 2 - 5 when deciding on business models. Perhaps keeping economic/political refugees from reaching US / European shores by offering to take them in would be such a path.

2) Between 20 and 25 years - The recognized path to sovereignty will probably not happen in this time frame, but rather within the 50 years. First of all, it has been traditionally extremely hard for local land-based groups to achieve autonomous rule (I can only imagine that the PTB will be more reluctant to allow so-called nomads to do so). Second of all, I would anticipate seeing, as seasteading grows, not a reduction or maintenance of degree of control over the oceans but rather an increase in the measures by the PTB to try and control the oceans and those who use them. Thirdly, seeking this path of sovereignty will largely be left to those who have the resources, organizational capabilities, and contacts required to do so. Given that the majority of us are a bunch of middle-class libertarians with tendencies toward personal independence and eschewing the Establishment, I doubt that we will be in a position to fight this battle so soon.

3) Sometime between 50 and 75 years - with the projected increase in population of seasteads and the threat that poses to traditional land-based governmental businesses/monopolies, I would expect significant friction and probable military action by at least one PTB, if not several. If we can retain sponsor state(s) that will help fight our battles, both politically and militarily, then the movement may survive; if not, we will never achieve the greatness we could have.

Other than that, I think it looks like a doable timeline, but one that will require constant action to achieve. Onward, mateys, onward!